Luxembourg tops global wine consumption at 67 litres per person per year and also boasts one of the world’s highest life expectancies.
Portugal, France, Italy, and Switzerland also combine high wine consumption with long life expectancies.
It’s tempting to assume longevity is caused by wine consumption. However, public health research consistently documents alcohol’s negative impacts.
Having noted the potential link between wine and longevity, let’s first look more closely at which countries are world leaders in wine consumption.
The chart below shows the top 10 wine-drinking countries in 2022, measured by per capita wine supply litres per person per year) from FAO.
Luxembourg stands out, topping the list with 67.2 litres per person, around 90 bottles of wine annually. That’s almost 30% more than Portugal (52.2 litres). France (42.8 litres), Italy (39.2 litres), and Switzerland (33.1 litres) complete the top five.
The next five, Romania, Denmark, the Netherlands, Seychelles, and Uruguay, consume between 22 and 25 litres per person per year.
With a clearer view of which countries drink the most wine, the next question is: Does higher wine consumption actually translate to longer life?
At first glance, the hypothesis seems plausible. Countries like France, Italy, and Switzerland demonstrate both high wine consumption and excellent living standards.
This suggests a narrative that wine might drive longevity. However, we need to critically examine whether this causal relationship exists.
But does the data support that claim?
Below is a scatter plot comparing wine consumption per capita with life expectancy at birth in 2022, using FAOSTAT’s wine supply data and World Bank life expectancy figures.
The five highest wine-consuming countries cluster in the upper right: both wine consumption and life expectancy are high.
Yet, the overall trend line is modest. Many countries with low wine consumption, such as Japan and Norway, also have long life expectancies. This leads us to the conclusion that correlation does not imply causation.
Why Correlation Isn’t Enough
A positive trend might suggest a connection, but does greater wine consumption actually cause longer life?
Yet, the evidence remains weak. Only a few heavy wine-drinking countries influence results, and correlation does not imply causation.
More importantly, just because two factors correlate doesn’t prove that one causes the other.
Numerous confounders may affect both wine consumption and life expectancy, creating spurious connections.
Let’s try to list some of them.
Possible Confounders
- Wealth & Healthcare – Luxembourg, Switzerland, and France are all wealthy countries with advanced healthcare systems and high income levels. Wealth provides greater access to medical care, which might mitigate the results of alcohol consumption.
- Diet – The Mediterranean diet included vegetables, fish, and olive oil. Diets rich in these foods reduce the rates of heart disease and improve health outcomes.
- Social & Cultural Factors – In much of Southern Europe, wine is usually consumed with meals and in social settings. Social interaction can lead to higher happiness and better health outcomes.
- Lifestyle & Physical Activity – Populations in many high wine-consuming countries tend to walk frequently, spend significant time outdoors, and have lower rates of severe obesity.
In causal inference, this is called a violation of exchangeability. After accounting for observed variables, if ‘wine drinkers’ and ‘non-wine drinkers’ differ in essential ways, we cannot attribute differences in outcomes to wine itself.
If correlation cannot establish causation, what methods can we use?
Proving a causal effect requires research designs that clearly isolate the impact of wine from other confounders. Possible approaches include:
- Natural Experiments – We can identify a policy change (such as a sudden tax cut or an increase in wine prices) in one country and compare life expectancy trends to those in similar countries unaffected by the policy.
- Longitudinal Cohort Studies – Track individuals over time, controlling for diet, income, health habits, and social factors, to see if moderate wine drinkers live longer.
- Controlling for confounding variables, such as wealth, diet, healthcare, social ties, and physical activity can help isolate the effect of wine. However, unmeasured confounders remain a challenge for causal inference.
Without rigorous research, any claim that ‘wine makes you live longer’ remains unsupported.
Summary
Many top wine-consuming countries also have long life expectancies. However, this pattern does not necessarily indicate causation.
Wine consumption is likely a confounding part of a healthy lifestyle, alongside a balanced diet, social connections, regular healthcare, and physical activity.
The truth is more complex than attributing longevity to a single factor.